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The the outcome for for dwelling values the funny thing is both of the analysts being quoted in that in that article have absolutely backtracked on on their comments and and suggested that probably the worst case scenario that they presented was being portrayed as the most likely outcome which which I think certainly isn’t the case but I think we should expect this housing downturn is going to be more substantial than what we’ve seen in the past mostly because the past is a really low benchmark yeah the biggest downturn the Sydney markets ever seen in our data.
Goes back to the s is during the last recession so early s we saw Sydney values fall by about percent over about two years about twenty four months Sydney’s almost down by percent now I think will absolutely see Sydney record a larger decline than percent probably more like percent and over a long time timeframe as well mostly because this downturn is very different it’s it’s about credit availability it’s about finance regulation and we haven’t seen the normal catalysts of a market cycle just yet.
It was a slowdown wood softening in the market over probably a two year period and the logic or the rhetoric around that was that the speed to go down to where will bottom will be the same as the time taken to get back to to where it started is that still consistent with how you guys are seeing it right now and you know everyone wants to try and pick the bottom of the city market are we there yet and you know when are we going to start seeing things moving from from negative to positive in Sydney it’s a great way to look at the market and look at the previous downturns in the trajectory of decline and then look at the the up the upswing.
Which is typically monetary policy changes or economic conditions either worsening or improving so we’ll stick on sitting for the moment we’ll get to Melbourne in a second I went to a property seminar seminar I would like a report for people in a property industry as far as a little www.sydneypropertyvaluations.net.au while ago now but whenever I go to these things they always use your data as the way to explain the market so they’ll have narrative and commentary around it but it always be based on what they’re seeing in the data that you’re providing and I remember seeing a graph which showed a the softening of the Sydney market and and it was a it wasn’t a sharp drop.
How long does it take property values to recover and remarkably you’re right it takes about the same amount of time for a property market to recover as what it did to to reach a trough well will that happen this time around well if history isn’t in the go-by probably okay but the big question is here how long will that will the property market stay in a downturn that that’s probably more a question around well how long will finance conditions stay as tight as what they are that’s for probably the foreseeable future at the moment macro potential policies don’t look set to be being wearing back we’ve got the final report being handed down from the Royal Commission.
The stuff that sydney property valuations we can easily measure ifwe look at shopping malls office spaceslarge warehouses stuff like that you
sydney property valuations know prices are trading .
- At very veryhigh levels and on very modest yields inmany cases and commercial property hashad a huge run over the last couple ofyears we’ve seen massive gains in termsof .
- The actual capital values there so ifyou were actually you know holding a lotof commercial property a couple of yearsago you’ve done very well as you.
- Wouldhave in a lot of residential areas iguess as well but certainly there’s noyou know it’s not where you want to belooking right now for very very highsafe yield.
- i mean if you can find it ini guess out of the box places and stuffthat other people have had troublefinancing or the stuff that’s too smallfor institutional interest .
Then theremay be you know it may be a differentstory but if we look at it again just interms of comparing asset classes and tocompare valuations and certainly you .
Know commercial property is not exactlyofferinga very very you know cheap optionsomething else I want to quickly touchon as well as that you know.
While peopleare often you know they get scared awayby the concept that you know assets aretrading at all-time highs you know thatactually is the norm if.
We look at say ahundred year scale then you know assetprices typically go up over time rightand for them to go up over time theyhave to keep trading higher and higherand so as.
They trade higher and higheryou know they’re going to sit onall-time highs and yeah the media isgoing to go.
Well you know things moreexpensive than they’ve ever been and youknow all the scared people will stayscared and they’ll say oh you shouldn’tbuy now .
Things are as expensive as I’veever been but then when something is youknow going down and value they say ohwell you couldn’t buy now if you knowthings are going to get.
Worse so youknow it really comes down to yourperspective I think or with this is prime real estate and author of Australian